When one looks at a map of the world’s oceans, one might see the Pacific Ocean as a major flashpoint in the coming decades. It’s one of the few places where the great navies of the world could still, possibly, clash. The United States, Russia, Japan, and now China. The PLAN (Chinese Navy) grabs headlines for its aggressive naval expansion plans and posturing; all the while, there is another naval build-up not too far away. If one is to look a little to the south and west, they’ll spot the Indian Ocean, home to the Indian Navy. Both China and India, as rising powers, see the value of having a blue-water navy. India views dominance in the Indian Ocean as essential for projecting power and protecting critical trade routes. Additionally, it is very well aware of its neighbors’ naval build-up and sees fit to make its own plans for naval reform and expansion. In accordance with this principle, the Indian Navy has come to focus on three main areas: aircraft carriers/naval aviation, anti-submarine technology, and a transfer to domestically designed and produced weapon systems. The advancement of these three areas will allow the Indian Navy to present a credible challenge to the PLAN, and with the help of regional allies, possibly even deter any future aggression in the Indian Ocean.
Even as a former colony of the British Empire, India has had an uneven relationship with a “naval tradition”. Mainly because there wasn’t a strategic need for one, and especially in regards to its rival Pakistan. Indian defense policy mainly focused on potential land conflicts with its rival Pakistan, and to a lesser extent, China. It was only in 1971 that India needed to confront Pakistan on the high seas, and with great success. But other than that, the navy was forced to play third fiddle to the Army and Air Force. It wouldn’t be until the 1980s that the Indian government would take naval expansion and modernization seriously. With the last major conventional confrontation with Pakistan in 1999, India has slowly been turning its attention to other parts of South Asia. By the first decade of the 21st century, this included China. But there was a new dimension to this rivalry, on the high seas. China has been aggressively expanding its naval presence across the Pacific, as well as establishing naval bases beyond. China’s main concern will always be the “first island chain”, but as China’s influence grows, so will its need to project military power. Enter the Indian Ocean, and India’s preexisting dominance in it. Since 1971, the Indian Navy has been the undisputed master of the Indian Ocean. But in the last few years, the PLAN has found itself on the outer edges of, and operating within, an ocean that has been the home base of the Indian Navy. The Indian government has been increasingly wary of a creeping Chinese presence so close to their traditional sphere of influence. Starting in the early 2000s, India has embarked on an aggressive and robust expansion of its naval capabilities.
In 1957, the Indian Navy was able to secure an older, semi-complete aircraft carrier from the British government. By 1961, it was completed and commissioned in the Indian Navy. This addition would have a transformative effect on the ability of the Indian Navy to project power, and would be used to great effect in the 1971 war against Pakistan. Later in 2004, India would acquire another semi-complete aircraft carrier, this time from Russia. But the true goal was always to domestically design and produce a carrier itself. Work on this far more ambitious project began in 1999, with formal approval in 2003. It would go on to be launched in 2013, and formally commissioned as the INS Vikrant in 2022. But launching a carrier is only part of the equation. Advanced, deck-ready aircraft need to be acquired, and pilots trained on how to take off and land. Thus, the Indian government needed to secure modern and reliable aircraft that could be carrier-based. Currently, the Vikrant employs Russian MiG-29Ks, but India is in need of a more current and better performing alternative. This led to the French Rafale-M to be selected, and delivered by 2030. Later, India hopes to add its HAL TEDBF (Twin engine deck based fighter) to the Vikrant fighter complement. This is a domestically designed fighter project, and eventually will be produced domestically as well. China has made waves recently with its carrier launches, with an eye towards how they might change the balance of power in the western Pacific. But India has taken notice, and has responded in kind, with two of its own carriers, and modern fighters to complement them.
But aircraft carriers would not be the only weapon system that the Indian Navy would need in a potential future conflict with the PLAN. The Chinese have been rapidly expanding their submarine fleet, both with attack and ballistic missile boats. Currently, the Indian Navy is in no position to challenge the PLAN sub-to-sub, but anti-submarine technology might just tip the scales. In 2009, the Indian government signed a deal with Boeing for 8 Poseidon P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, which were custom variants modified for use in the Indian Ocean. Later, a second agreement would be reached for 6 more. In addition, India would acquire the MH-60R Seahawk, helicopters specially built for tracking submarines, for use aboard the new INS Vikrant. In addition to airborne anti-submarine systems, India has been investing heavily in UUVs (underwater unmanned vehicles) to add another dimension to confronting the Chinese sub threat. Long-term, the Indian Navy will see further additions to its own submarine fleet, but overall, India has preferred to address the Chinese subsurface threat with a more holistic approach.
Historically, India has been a massive arms importer, mainly from Russia, the US, and France; the Indian military is one of the few services in the world where one can see US and Russian weapon systems work together. But in the last 10 years, India has seen fit to transfer more of its arms procurement and production to domestic sources. This was furthered by the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, when Indian access to spare parts for Russian systems became more difficult. Currently, a theme that runs through both carrier fleet creation and anti-submarine weapon systems is that the Indian Navy is increasingly looking to domestic design and production. India’s first and second carriers were bought from foreign governments, the UK, and Russia. Both the P-8 and MH-60R are manufactured in the US. But looking forward to the newer anti-sub drones and new classes of attack submarines and surface ships, India is looking to do all R&D, testing, and manufacturing in-country. Although a large quantity of components for said future systems will be sourced overseas, this will still signal a massive shift of the Indian Navy from one of a buyer to a builder.
The US Navy sees its next major naval clash in the Pacific, most likely in the first island chain. But the Indian Navy has the Bay of Bengal to monitor. Their concerns from China are similar and different all at once. Whereas in the Pacific the US can rely on a series of bases and allies, in the Indian Ocean, India has only itself. China has reached port-call agreements with Pakistan and Sri Lanka and has a full-fledged naval installation in Djibouti. This is why the Indian Navy has seen fit to modernize its carrier capabilities and expand its anti-submarine capacity. Both initiatives are being built on domestic design and production. India will increasingly see these naval advancements as critical to national and economic security, as Chinese vessels operate close to India itself, and important sea trade routes. With India’s naval expansion almost entirely focused on the Chinese threat, over time, regardless of changing economic conditions, the Indian Navy will increasingly look towards regional partners to offset its defense capabilities. This is best exemplified by the regional grouping known as The Quad (India, US, Australia, and Japan). China, on the other hand, has very few options when it comes to regional allies in the Pacific Ocean. Over time, the threat from the PLAN could further bind together the US and India, along with their regional partners, in more numerous and lasting security agreements.
In conclusion, the Indian Navy sees the PLAN as its only real adversary in the Indian Ocean. And sees Chinese encroachment in that area as a threat, and thus has embarked on an aggressive naval expansion program to counter said threat. India has also not been shy about working with regional partners to bolster its potential naval capabilities. This might, in response, push China to seek deeper naval cooperation with Russia, or possibly North Korea. Overall, the current Indian naval expansion underway is often the missing piece with people seeing a potential clash in the Pacific Ocean.