"The problem with mercenaries is that they need to be paid to start fighting. And, unless you are very lucky, you end up paying them even more to stop" Terry Pratchett, in Jingo, captured the problem in a single sentence.
Great commentary on the rise and fall, and rise again of the PMC’s. They are like holding an unlicensed firearm, deadly, unaccountable and morally questionable. Thanks for sharing 🤙
A useful distinction may be between outsourcing military services and delegating coercive sovereignty.
Wagner’s danger did not arise simply because its personnel were paid. It arose because the Russian state allowed one organisation to accumulate recruitment channels, weapons, autonomous command, commercial revenues, foreign relationships and a distinct institutional identity.
Plausible deniability therefore carries a hidden cost: the state transfers not only risk, but also bargaining power. The more successful the proxy becomes, the less completely it remains a tool and the more it develops interests, dependencies and coercive capacity of its own.
The 2023 mutiny was not merely mercenary disloyalty. It was sovereignty leakage—the moment delegated violence acquired enough organisational autonomy to challenge the authority that had enabled it.
You make a great point! These newer groups are being given semi-official state authority. And it was only a matter of time until they felt they could act on their own. Obviously that’s why Moscow has seen for to reassert authority over Wagner, remaking it the Russian Africa Corp. Definitely agree about the mutiny, would love to do a whole write up on just that event in the near future ;)
Exactly. The shift from Wagner to the Africa Corps looks less like an abandonment of proxy warfare than an attempt to re-centralise coercive authority after the mutiny exposed the risks of organisational autonomy. A focused piece on that transition would be very worthwhile.
About this and European politics,the answer to concerns over Ukraine is that we should think about ourselves first or that we don't have “enough to give” etc.
The left has no prospects, so I will not even comment on it. However, there is also a great deal of confusion on the right. For example, there is the idea that globalization and its countless benefits must necessarily entail drawbacks such as immigration from the Third World, which is not true at all. Limiting ideas often emerge, such as, “we should not build an empire because we need to focus on ourselves,” or “we cannot conquer space because we have to cure diseases,” or “GDP growth is not the only thing that matters; well-being is,” and so on, as if these things were mutually exclusive.
"The problem with mercenaries is that they need to be paid to start fighting. And, unless you are very lucky, you end up paying them even more to stop" Terry Pratchett, in Jingo, captured the problem in a single sentence.
Great quote :)
Pratchett has some serious insights wrapped up in brilliant comedic writing. His books are a treasure trove
Great commentary on the rise and fall, and rise again of the PMC’s. They are like holding an unlicensed firearm, deadly, unaccountable and morally questionable. Thanks for sharing 🤙
A useful distinction may be between outsourcing military services and delegating coercive sovereignty.
Wagner’s danger did not arise simply because its personnel were paid. It arose because the Russian state allowed one organisation to accumulate recruitment channels, weapons, autonomous command, commercial revenues, foreign relationships and a distinct institutional identity.
Plausible deniability therefore carries a hidden cost: the state transfers not only risk, but also bargaining power. The more successful the proxy becomes, the less completely it remains a tool and the more it develops interests, dependencies and coercive capacity of its own.
The 2023 mutiny was not merely mercenary disloyalty. It was sovereignty leakage—the moment delegated violence acquired enough organisational autonomy to challenge the authority that had enabled it.
You make a great point! These newer groups are being given semi-official state authority. And it was only a matter of time until they felt they could act on their own. Obviously that’s why Moscow has seen for to reassert authority over Wagner, remaking it the Russian Africa Corp. Definitely agree about the mutiny, would love to do a whole write up on just that event in the near future ;)
Exactly. The shift from Wagner to the Africa Corps looks less like an abandonment of proxy warfare than an attempt to re-centralise coercive authority after the mutiny exposed the risks of organisational autonomy. A focused piece on that transition would be very worthwhile.
About this and European politics,the answer to concerns over Ukraine is that we should think about ourselves first or that we don't have “enough to give” etc.
The left has no prospects, so I will not even comment on it. However, there is also a great deal of confusion on the right. For example, there is the idea that globalization and its countless benefits must necessarily entail drawbacks such as immigration from the Third World, which is not true at all. Limiting ideas often emerge, such as, “we should not build an empire because we need to focus on ourselves,” or “we cannot conquer space because we have to cure diseases,” or “GDP growth is not the only thing that matters; well-being is,” and so on, as if these things were mutually exclusive.